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This is the time in the passage where you have to make some hard decisions. With how slow we’d been going due to the light winds recently, we had been pushing back our expected arrival to sometime on the 27th. However, we got a slight reprieve and actually had some wind (like 15 knots) over the last 30ish hours. So many thanks to those of you wishing for more wind and doing ancient wind dances!
That meant we were able to cover significantly more miles than I was anticipating and has put us in striking distance to be able to arrive by sunset on the 26th. Here’s how the math works out:
We have a bit under 200 miles to go.
To arrive by 7pm (sunset) on the 26th, we have to average 5.67 knots. To arrive by 7am (sunrise) on the 27th, we have to average 4.25 knots.
To arrive by 1:40pm (the start of our 20th day at sea) on the 27th, we have to average 3.73 knots.
The forecasts look like we’ll be lucky to see 11 knots of wind (straight from behind us) for the rest of our trip, so trying to sail will be slow. Even with that amount of wind, we should be able to sail an average of 3.73 knots, but that is painfully slow (It works out to about a 14 min/mile pace so you could literally run faster!). When you factor in the amount of time we need to spend motoring to charge our batteries, we should be able to average the 4.25 knots needed to arrive after sunrise.
However, to arrive by sunset on the 26th, we’d need to motor/motorsail perhaps 2x as long as is necessary to charge our batteries. We’ve done pretty awesome with fuel usage so far and have just a bit under 3/4 of a tank left (thanks to our 50 gallon fuel bladder and some jerry cans) so we could easily motor the rest of the way and still have plenty of diesel remaining.
The honest truth is I’m pretty frustrated by these slow winds, so I think the extra diesel usage will be well worth saving my sanity. Sunset arrival on the 26th, here we come!